Here we go again. Trump is once again agitating against Zelensky. Let’s see how this goes. If this isn’t déjà vu, I don’t know what is. It feels like just a few months ago we were at the same point: Putin pretended to have some kind of deal, Trump then tore into Zelensky about needing elections, and afterwards things seemed to calm down a little. And now we are here again.
If it works, great. I hope it does. If not, we will once again have seen that Putin is not willing to negotiate, no matter how much Trump tries to appease him.
Honestly, it is difficult to watch. I have to control my emotions, and I don’t even live in Ukraine. Ukrainians are suffering every day. They do not want this war. They also do not want Russian occupation, nor should they. We all know by now, or could know if we wanted to find out, what happens under Russian occupation. It’s not pretty. It’s not something you would wish on anyone.
I don’t always talk about how frustrating this political landscape is to me. It is frustrating to see that, in both the US and Europe, there are still people who think that if we only made the right kind of deal, this war could end. We have seen attempt after attempt after attempt.
I recently watched a political talk show in Germany where someone from the AfD, the Alternative for Germany, said, “Well, we just need to negotiate with Putin.” And of course Markus Lanz, the moderator, was able to say, “But we’ve done that. Trump is doing that. Nothing happens.” So I don’t know whether it calms me down to see that there is actually some utility in what Trump is doing: demonstrating that Putin really does not follow through, that Putin really does not want peace. He shows this every day.
During negotiations, there should typically be a ceasefire. If you truly want peace, you start with a ceasefire first. You do not say, “Accept my deal and then we’ll have peace, but we will not cease fire while we negotiate.” That may have happened occasionally, but it shows bad faith. Putin is not a good-faith actor. I don’t know about Trump; I don’t want to speculate. But with Putin, we definitively know, because we’ve been at this very point before.
And it goes beyond Trump. In Europe, there are political actors, sometimes probably supported by Putin, sometimes perhaps without their knowledge, who support division and erode support for Ukraine. Andy Burnham, Prime Minister of Britain, actually admitted today that there was Russian influence in the Brexit campaign. That isn’t news in itself, but it is news that a British prime minister would say so.
So we will all have to face the fact that this will have to play itself out. Yet another attempt to solve the problem through deals and negotiations.
It seems many people who did not grow up in the Soviet space severely lack an understanding of where Putin’s motivation comes from. I understand the confusion of many people around the world who did not live under Soviet imperialism. The Soviet Union actually helped the postcolonial movement. If you’re wondering why a lot of support for Russia comes from African countries, this is why. But they’re confusing two things. Many of those nations were never truly within the Soviet system, and a colonizer behaves differently when it is trying to woo you. They’re also channeling their anger toward other colonizing powers, which in North and West Africa has largely been France, and thinking that, moving away from French influence in Mali, Niger, and other countries, maybe it’s best to turn to Putin. No.
How Soviet or Russian imperialism differs from whatever came before is not always understood. How Russian or Soviet imperialism worked in the countries under its control is also apparently difficult for some people in the West to grasp. There’s this idea: just live with them, just live under them, how bad can it be? It can be very bad.
There’s a reason there are so many Russians within Ukraine: deliberate colonization. There’s a reason for support for Putin within Russia. It’s not as much as we think, but it is still there, because the idea of a great Russian empire, a great Soviet empire, has been ingrained in people’s heads for a long time. Your life may not be perfect, but national greatness, the size of your country on the map, and how many people have been conquered and subdued are a matter of pride in that system. I lived in it. I can tell you that’s what it is like. You look at the map and think, “Look what we have. My life is bad, but at least I’m part of this.” That’s the seduction.
The other part is the honest belief that Russian culture is superior to any other, and the perceived betrayal when Belarusians, Ukrainians, even Poles, and whoever else was on the receiving end of Russian culture rejected it. It’s almost like the feeling some people have when their love, or pretended love, is rejected. Some people react like that, and some countries react like that: “You don’t want me, so I’m going to have to destroy you.”
You only have to look at what happened to Chechnya, to Syria, and what is happening to parts of Ukraine now to see Russia’s master plan for Ukraine. This is why Ukrainians say, “We don’t want that.” They see their people forced to fight against their own people. There has been forced conscription in the occupied territories to fight against Ukraine. You see how town after town that Russia “liberates” becomes a pile of rubble. You see deliberate bombings of libraries, cultural institutions, recently the National Academy of Sciences, and churches, to eradicate Ukrainian culture. That is the purpose. Ukraine dared to say, “We are not Russian. We are our own people.” This is why they are being punished by Putin.
No deal can appease that kind of thinking. The only answer to that kind of thinking is complete victory over this mindset.
To my European friends who believe Europe is not at war with Russia: Europe is at war with Russia. It just denies it. Or rather, Russia is at war with Europe. Russia is also at war with the United States, in alliance with Iran, the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Venezuela used to be part of that. You can try to deny that reality, but we know the flows of weapons. We know the flows of intelligence. We know how much Putin is involved in supporting Iran in its war against the US. And yes, you could say, “But wasn’t that war started by Trump?” Well, Iran declared it many years ago. Iran was already fighting against our allies.
We have a coalition set out to destroy the West. That means a coalition set out to destroy democracy, freedom of speech, freedom of thought, free elections: all the things that allow me and all of you to be in spaces like this online. This is the aim.
Look at what Russia is becoming. Another close ally is North Korea. I don’t know what China is doing. China is trying to have its cake and eat it too. It is trying to join this fight against the West, but it also knows that China and the US are tied at the hip. We are living in what Fareed Zakaria has called “Chimerica.” But look at North Korea, and look at how Russia is transforming into a version of North Korea. Is that how you want to live? Is that how you want Ukrainians to live? And do you really believe that, should Putin conquer Ukraine, he would not continue? Ukraine is just the first step.
Don’t listen to Putin. Look at what Putin is doing. Rule number one in politics: do not listen to what politicians say. Look at what they do. Look at the causes they support, the people they put into office, the laws being enacted. Do not listen to what Putin is saying. In my view, that’s the mistake Trump is making. It is very clear: Putin speaks by bombing Ukraine. Putin speaks a language of destruction. Any deal that could be made needs to stop that and prevent it from happening again.
Now, let’s see how this plays out. It is encouraging that both Republicans and Democrats are speaking out against this. It is encouraging that European partners are steadfast in their support for Ukraine. But it isn’t over yet.
The other war is Putin’s war to destabilize our democracies. The AfD in Germany has won a few elections, and it will win more, partly for domestic reasons. We’re seeing what’s happening in France. Just like in Germany, the extreme left and the extreme right are united in their support for Russia. This is not over.
What can we do? Speak out against it. Support democracy. Support political competence. And make sure that whatever comes out at the end is a stronger democracy and stronger support for the values we believe in.
Thank you very much. This is Erratic Attempts. Like, subscribe, and comment if you would like. I have to say, I can’t believe how strong Ukraine has been. It’s unbelievable to see. Support Ukraine with all you can. If you don’t have money, support it in words. Support it by talking to people. Support it by voting.
[This was originally posted to YouTube as a video. This post is a slightly abbreviated transcript, preserving the oral style of the video.]
