What we are seeing now between Russia and Ukraine is that while Russia still keeps pounding Ukraine and creating all kinds of pain and suffering, Ukraine actually has strategic wins. It actually hits relevant infrastructure. It hits where it hurts. It hits Russia’s capacity to wage war, and it has also been hitting the Russian economy.
This shows that Russia is not winning this war. But that doesn’t mean that this is now something that will just happen on its own. Ukraine is still suffering. Russia is still not defeated. It just can’t win. It will try to double down on the damage towards Ukraine, because even though I think Russian authorities know they’re not winning, they want to make sure that Ukraine is as destroyed as possible, that Ukraine is suffering as much as possible, because that will inhibit Ukrainian success postwar in its rebuilding.
What this means is we need to stay committed to defeating the aggressor, to defeating Russia. Russia needs to experience a defeat that tells them that their approach has been wrong. It needs to experience a defeat in order to start thinking constructively about their future — because Ukraine is just the first step, or one of the first steps. I mean, Georgia, Transnistria, and previously Syria and Mali and other countries are just part of the imperial game played here. If Russia does not learn that this is not the strategy, it’ll continue.
So Ukraine needs continuing, further support. And I am hopeful that Putin’s regime will collapse. It can happen that quickly, but it can also take years. Be optimistic, but cautiously optimistic. It may happen sooner than we think. It all depends on our continuous support and the conviction of Ukraine’s supporters to just staying the course, because Russia must be defeated — also so that Russia can become something else, something better, also for the sake of the Russian people, who deserve better. But first, Ukraine needs to win.
Ceterum censeo Ucrainam esse defendam. Слава Україні!
[This was originally posted to YouTube as a video. This post is a slightly abbreviated transcript, preserving the oral style of the video.]
Erratic Attempts 