Somebody should remind the current Prime Minister of the still United Kingdom of a wise sage once proclaiming loudly, as an answer to all questions about what Brexit means, that “Brexit Means Brexit.” I believe that person was a certain Boris Johnson.
That person was part of a movement that kept denigrating every single expert that advised them on the consequences for the UK as regards trade, relations with the EU, and, most importantly, the peace process in Northern Ireland.
Predictably, the chickens are coming home to roost now. Or rather, they may be stuck in complex supply lines hampered by increased bureaucracy due to Brexit. Clearly, there needs to be a border between the United Kingdom and the European Union. That border lies in Ireland, a result of British colonization of the island and the regained independence of part of the island. The remaining part that is still part of the British Crown is one of the four nations of the United Kingdom, which conveniently is separated by sea from the island of Great Britain. The only way to avoid a land border on Ireland would be to erect it between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, as agreed by said Boris Johnson.
Pacta Sunt Servanda – treaties are to be followed, as the old saying goes. Political tricksterdom can only go so far without consequences. Is the expectation that the EU will violate their own rules? If the UK was still in the EU, they could shape policy; now, it is 27 to 1. Is the expectation that Ireland should not follow EU rules but be aligned with the UK? If anyone seriously considered this (and some seem to do so), this would be legitimately seen as an act of neo-colonialism.
Clearly, anti-Irish attitudes were the main driver behind Brexit ignorance. Surely, Irish interests were seen as less important to the snubbish political establishment in Westminster and Whitehall. That goes for both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland: Neither matter, seemingly, enough for the UK to have been taken into consideration when even thinking about Brexit.
Similarly, the European Union is being underestimated. Granted, the EU may seem dysfunctional at times. All these quarreling nations could not possibly really want to work together; look at the problems between the EU and Poland and Hungary right now. But is Poland going to leave the EU and become Belarus 2.0 under Putin’s guidance? Certainly not. Is Hungary going to align with Russia or China? Both countries have issues with the EU becoming too dominant in domestic policy (rightly or wrongly; in my opinion, wrongly, but what do I know), but they know they are better off in a dissident position within the EU rather than a subservient one to anti-democratic big powers.
The UK left the EU because, frankly, they never were fully in. All other big powers in Europe have been sufficiently humbled by the angel of history to have realized that their future lies within a united Europe, come what may. History teaches what very well would come if Europeans started to be disunited again. Have no illusions about it. To wish for the EU to fail is folly, nothing else.
Brexit was and continues to be a folly. It is a failure of the political establishment in the UK, without any doubt. Now they need to realize what they have said before: Brexit indeed means Brexit, the people, apparently, don’t matter.
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