It has become clear by now that Russia cannot win any of the aims of their “Special Military Operation.” They cannot “denazify” Ukraine, simply because Ukraine is not run by Nazis, they cannot “demilitarize” it, because Ukraine is not just supported by its allies but also determined to produce weapons itself. They protect the separatist pseudo-“Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk, as they have been pushing their men into combat, and they cannot govern their newly annexed territories, as they do not even control most of them, and even Crimea is in danger. The Russian economy has been severely impacted due to sanctions, people fleeing Russia, and Russian men killed in this insane military operations.
What is the outlook for Russia?
- Sanctions will probably continue until Ukraine wins or a peace agreement is reached. Such an agreement, however, is not quite on the horizon as Russia refuses to withdraw from its five annexed Ukrainian provinces. While Russian attempts to circumvent sanctions have been successful in part, such attempts have driven up prices and are still not anywhere close to resembling pre-war deals.
- Ukraine’s counteroffensive will continue, and resistance will continue, no matter what. Ukrainians have shown that they are determined to fight back, even if it takes months or years.
- NATO and the EU have been undeterred, aside from detractors such as Hungary. Support for Ukraine is political consensus, and even if some countries slide back in their commitment to aid the victims of Russian aggression, other countries will pick up the burden. NATO has grown stronger, more determined, and more committed to its mission to protect democracy.
- NATO expansion has continued. What most people seem to refuse to understand is that NATO expansion into former Soviet countries had been mostly nominal. Yes, countries were admitted into NATO, and thus entered the alliance’s protective umbrella, but NATO had been hesitant to commit troops to be stationed at Russia’s borders, so that Russia would not have any legitimate reason to feel threatened. Such hesitation is over now. NATO expansion has become real.
- The world community will not tolerate then use of nuclear weapons by Russia. Even China has agreed to that.
- Russia’s leadership has shown weakness during Prigozhin’s brief insurrection. Putin panicked, and he was revealed as impotent against Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary troops. More instability will follow, and more repression as well, which will increase doubts in the system. The czar has no clothes.
- Putin’s hope that Trump would be reelected and withdraw US engagement from Ukraine may prove misguided. First of all, it is not at all clear that Trump would win, and second, Trump’s position on Russian aggression is not quite clear at all. Trump has already proven his point that Europe needs to contribute more to NATO – and European countries are doing just that. The alliance is stronger than before, and if Trump appreciates one thing, it is strength. Even if he gets reelected, he may prove to be Putin’s biggest disappointment. Russia has cemented its role as the “Evil Empire,” and American voters may be all too willing to commit to ending Russian imperialism a second time around. Trump likes strong leaders. Zelensky’s response to Russia’s attack was that he stayed and organized Ukrainian resistance, while Putin’s response to the Wagner revolt was that his plane was seen Moscow, and he held a whiny, scared and panicky speech, eventually reneging on punishing Wagner. If Trump wants strength, he would see it in Zelensky, not Putin. Furthermore, Ukrainian flags are regularly flown in the US. The population may not like that too much money is spent for Ukraine, but they certainly are not in favor of Russian aggression. Stooges like Tucker Carlson have been fired, and Tulsi Gabbard has no serious political future.
Russia has only one successful path: Withdraw from all of Ukraine, end the war, pay reparations, and hope to return to the world community.
Instead, Russia prioritizes the bombing of civilians and civilian infrastructure, sending its young men into a senseless war, destroying its economy, terrorizing its population and undermining its own future, just in order to placate an out-of-touch, paranoid genocidal maniac like Putin.
Russia has chosen terror over peace. It needs to be labeled as a terror regime. It must be made clear to Russia that there is no way out in which Russia wins.
Ceterum censeo Ucrainam esse defendam. Слава Україні!
Erratic Attempts 