I’m not the only one talking about this, but I think it needs to be repeated: Ukraine can win. This sounds like an outrageous statement. Isn’t Russia so much bigger? Isn’t Ukraine running out of people? Isn’t the West tired of supporting? Doesn’t Russia have China helping it? Isn’t Putin such a great strategist? Isn’t Russia too big to take on?
Let’s start with the last one. No one wants to conquer Russia. There are no troops heading for Moscow. There is no attempt made by Ukraine to conquer Russia. Ukraine did not start this war—Russia did. Ukraine will not finish this war by conquering Russia. Ukraine doesn’t even have to conquer back all its territory.
And no, Putin is not a good strategist. Just look at what he recently did. He was trying to play Donald Trump. He was trying to convince Trump in person to stop his support of Ukraine, because Putin operates apparently on the notion that the key to Ukraine goes through the United States, and that Donald Trump—posing so much as the boss—is a kindred autocrat.
He failed in these assessments. Donald Trump is not in control of the United States. The voters are. The voters tell Trump now that they, in an overwhelming bipartisan majority—even MAGA—support Ukraine. This is new. They probably saw how Putin thought he could manipulate Donald Trump, and they probably didn’t like it.
Trump repeatedly has said he has these nice conversations with Putin, and then Putin keeps killing. You would have to really be convinced that Trump is such a horrible non-human to not assume this doesn’t affect him.
It is also not true that Trump is in control of the West, that the US is in control of the West. It isn’t. Europe does rely on military support from the United States, but Europe is not a toothless tiger. At this point, I would not count out Europe anymore.
And Trump has made it so that Europe, through those tariffs and their own NATO contributions—tariffs’ contributions will lag behind—will pay for what the US can deliver. But European support for Ukraine is there. Not the same in every country, but every country has their own little problems. But most Europeans know that this is not just about Ukraine. This is about European security.
It’s a complicated relationship between each European country and Ukraine, but with some sadly sizable but minority objections, Europeans prefer Ukraine over Russia. I think I can say that with commitment. And again, it depends on the country, but as a majority, European countries are supporting Ukraine.
The clearest example: the United Kingdom has a military that can be counted on. The other clear example is France. Same with Poland. Western Europe keeps underestimating Poland. Poland is determined. Poland alone at this point could be enough. The Baltic states definitely are determined.
And so we see a clear picture that Putin’s sole focus in the last years on the United States was mistaken.
But if you leave all of this out of the picture, just have one question—and I’m aware the situation could change any minute—but where’s the Russian summer offensive? Summer is running out. Has the offensive already happened? Is it running out? Is it being prepared?
Pokrovsk is holding, Sumy is holding. There’s no chance that Russia can conquer the rest of Donbass within a foreseeable time. That doesn’t bode well for Russia.
Similarly, as of today, Ukraine has disabled or damaged 17%—I believe that’s the number—of Russian energy infrastructure. Every day, it seems we are hearing of more and more Russian oil and gas infrastructure and weapons infrastructure being attacked and destroyed or heavily damaged.
We are seeing that Ukraine has developed its own weaponry, and that there are seemingly some new Neptunes and flamingos coming. Again, Ukraine is being underestimated. Before the war already, Ukraine was a major weapons producer. Even now during the war, Ukraine is selling weapons to clients. Ukraine is innovating weaponry. It’s building new drones. It’s building new ways to withstand the Russian attack and hopefully counter it.
At the same time, the country is resisting any efforts to slide into autocracy. Ukraine is conducting democratic reforms during the war. It is not going into the trap of becoming a dictatorship as so many other countries maybe would have done.
Ukraine also is preserving its young people. It is not sending children into the war as Russia is. Ukraine is preparing for a future that they know they will have.
And if not all the land that belongs legally and morally to Ukraine—the four occupied oblasts and Crimea—will be able to be returned after the war immediately, then they will return later once everybody can see that Ukraine is the safer bet and the economically more advanced society.
As other people have pointed out, this constant refrain of “every war ends in negotiations” is completely wrong. One of my hats that I wear is as a historian.
Germany in World War II: defeated militarily. Japan: defeated militarily. World War I Germany: stalemate, close to defeat, and they lost everything they conquered. There are so many examples of defeat, including Russia defeated in Afghanistan. This can happen.
The Americans were defeated in Afghanistan. They just ran out of desire to do anything there. Embarrassing, but not necessarily a defeat as such. America was defeated in Vietnam. A big country, a big empire can be defeated by a small country.
And Ukraine again is not a small country. It’s the largest country size-wise in Europe. Its population is not as it used to be. A lot of people have fled. A lot of people have been killed. But the determination is there.
Whatever Russia may be thinking—that these are all now quasi-Russians yearning to return home—that’s not true. Ukraine is determined to win this. Ukraine is determined to seek justice. Ukraine wants all its people back. Ukraine deserves all its territory back.
And Russia is not having the best government. Russia is not having the best leader, and Putin is not a good strategist.
Here’s the main reason why Ukraine will win: Putin does not know what he’s doing. Putin is not doing real politik. He is an ideologue.
And if what he does to others that visit him from the West is time and again talk about the long arc of Russian history—if he does this to Oliver Stone, to Tucker Carlson, and even arrives with maps in Alaska—I told you before that’s going to not go over well, and I was right.
If he does this time and again, then he believes it, or he believes it’s a winning strategy. It’s not.
There’s something about Putin that allows him to think rationally. A rational leader in Russia would have, post-Yeltsin, aligned themselves completely with the West, moved toward European integration, and become the biggest player in Europe. That’s how it would have worked.
But he couldn’t. He couldn’t overcome his own Soviet and Russian imperial priming. This is who he is.
Ukraine looks toward the future. Russia looks toward the past. You don’t win wars by looking at the past. This is where Ukraine will win.
Ceterum censeo Ucrainam esse defendam. Слава Україні!
[This was originally posted to YouTube as a video. This post is a slightly abbreviated transcript, preserving the oral style of the video.]
Erratic Attempts 