#261: If You Govern Against the People, You Will Fail

We live in a time of great challenges. Immigration, Climate Change, Pandemics, new communication platforms, new technologies, more longevity, wars, etc., etc, etc. Certainly, citizens will be able to understand that we are living in times of change, and that they have to go with the times.

Is that a realistic assumption?

By now, we have enough evidence. Brexit, elections in Italy, France, Germany, past elections leading to the PiS government in Poland, the collapse of traditional party systems, and now a second Trump election.

What is going on?

People were promised the following:

1. We can limit global warming to under 1.5 degrees Celsius, and it will not cost you much. Wrong.
2. We can easily transition to green jobs. Wrong.
3. We can easily transition to green energy. Wrong.
4. We can easily transition from gas powered cars to electric cars. Wrong.
5. (Best not talk about climate change. People won’t care and won’t even notice.) Wrong.
6. We can manage illegal immigration. Wrong.
7. We have enough space, and it will be to no cost to citizens to be welcoming to others. Wrong.
8. As to Covid: Initially: Masks don’t work (because there were to few of them). Then Masks worked again (because we had enough). Vaccines work against transmission and Long Covid. (They don’t). Now we are back to Masks don’t work, because some idiots cannot think, and people can’t be bothered. The Pandemic is over. Wrong.
9. Russia will not attack Ukraine. Wrong.
10. It is a great idea to produce all our stuff including medication in China, the fact that they are a horrible dictatorship won’t cause any trouble. Wrong.

Now, many of these points are wrong in some sense, but right in nuances. But both politics and citizens are wrong at nuances. Better messaging could have been possible, as in the following (if that is too much, you may skip the list).

1. We are doing what we can to limit global warming to under 1.5 degrees Celsius, but it will be different. Things will get more expensive as we are doing incentive pricing to have people buy different equipment and fly and drive less. This will cost more in the short run, but will save money in the long run by preventing the worst of climate change. If temperatures in the global average will rise even more, we will all be even worse off. Too complicated?
2. We can transition to green jobs, but not everyone will be easily qualified, and we will need to retrain people, some may have to relocate, and it will be difficult initially, but over time, we do not really have an alternative. The earlier we start the better. Too complicated?
3. We can transition to green energy, but this will have to include nuclear, and we will have to also work at using less energy – which we won’t because of technological advancements. There will have to be some compromises, and things will get more expensive for a while. We will also have to build new powerlines and our landscape will look even more industrial than it does today.
4. We can transition from gas powered cars to electric cars, but the technology is still new, not perfect, and there will have to be times of change that are a bit shaky. Also, we are using lithium currently, which is oftentimes mined in indigenous areas. We’ll probably have to live with that. Also, to get all the charging infrastructure going, and also, to not rely too much on cheap and dangerous Chinese models, will take time and investments and won’t be cheap.
5. We cannot prevent climate change for the foreseeable future. We will have to adapt. We will have to either go back to preindustrial times, or use more and more technology that people don’t like either to mitigate its effects. Also, insurance will become more expensive, and you may have to move because of flooding, fires and other problems.
6. We will have to accommodate even illegal immigration because there is no way out of the problem. We can’t have those people completely destabilize other countries. Also, we need them as cheap labor, because our people expect more wages and don’t have enough children anymore.
7. We’ll have to make more housing, and all our systems will be stretched to the brink. But we will eventually manage, but the transition time will be stressful.
8. As to Covid: Mask, be safe, vaccinate, this thing is weird, and the pandemic is not over. Every infection damages your body, there is risk of cardiovascular damage, and of long covid. Just because it was mild last time doesn’t men it’s mild in the future. Be careful. But also: We need you to participate in the economy so that our system doesn’t go down the drain.
9. We are in World War III already, and the entire West is being attacked by an alliance between Russia, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, North Korea with tacit support by China. They subject us to misinformation on all levels – climate change, domestic problems, wrong economic data, etc, in order for us to lose trust in our systems. We need to educate ourselves about these dangers and fight back.
10. China is stealing our technologies, producing everything with slave labor, and works hard at forcing their system eventually on the world. We should not work with them unless conditions change.

Did we get to hear these more nuanced points? No. Many Politicians and journalists seem to believe that the people are too uneducated, too selfish, too stupid.

Maybe nudging works? This is the idea that we could get people to do what they should be doing through small incentives, some message manipulation, and changes in language that may lead to changes in consciousness that create changes in action. This may work, but people increasingly see through it and find it insulting.

What the above mentioned elections have shown is that people do not want to be lied to, unless they do (in the case of Covid, most don’t want to hear it’s still going on; and in the case of Climate, they still want to travel and consume and live like there is no global warming).

So what can politicians do?

1. Be honest.
2. Work to fix the problems – at least try, and communicate transparently and, again, honestly.
3. Don’t think you can educate your voters. They will educate you next election.

Sadly, this also means unseemly things.

1. Immigration is fine as long as it is legal and fair.
2. Crime needs to be punished.
3. You cannot expect that people will want to spend money or restrict their lifestyle because of climate change. The only way out is nuclear energy, carbon capture, protection of habitat and local environments, and preparing for adapting for climate change. Don’t force people to consume less, drive less, fly less, eat less, even if that could work in theory — it won’t work because they’ll vote you out of office and punish anyone talking about that. Technology is the only way at this point.
4. You need to clearly communicate foreign policy, and how this translates to normal citizens. Understandably, people want their own tax dollars going to themselves, not some other country. Transactional politics may be unseemly and impolite, but they may have to be the path forward.
5. If people are against abortion for moral reasons, do not diminish that. It is about both women and unborn babies. Try to find a workable compromise.
6. If parents are against teachers not telling them about possible life changes of their underage kids, they cannot be withheld information.

Citizens are not subjects. They demand, rightfully, that their concerns be heard and addressed accordingly.

This is why Trump won, and why people like Trump are winning around the world.

This is not whether you agree on issues, it is about how to organize sustainable majorities that can secure that citizens will work with you and will not lose faith in their own future.

What we saw this week is that the Left lost because it did not understand the electorate, and if they did, they didn’t respect them. That’s not how things work.

Better luck next time? No, do this better next time, and work with voters rather than against them.