Are we betraying Ukraine right now? Are we in the process of rewarding Russia? Let me explain what’s going on right now. We have Donald Trump, who clearly wants to end this conflict. I really don’t like the word “conflict” – it sounds like there’s a legitimate dispute between Russia and Ukraine. There isn’t. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine is innocent. Ukraine was attacked because they dared to want to become democratic, because they dared to promote an alternative way to be a big country close to Russia, with a people related in many ways to Russia, although not being Russians, striving for democracy, freedom, and human rights.
Zelenskyy, through his television show and through his politics, has tried to de-stigmatize corruption. After the ouster of Yanukovych, a completely corrupt Russian-influenced president, Russia has had a problem. Ukraine provided a counter-example of what it means to be a somehow Russian-like people that live in a completely different world than most Russians.
Zelenskyy himself grew up speaking Russian – and his television show “Servant of the People” is in Russian as well; and yet, speaking the Russian language does not make you a Russian, just as speaking German as an Austrian does not make you Austrian, or speaking English as an American does not make you British.
If Ukrainians can have democracy, less corruption, and trade and interact freely with the West, why can’t Russians do that? That is at the core of this.
You have a criminal in the Kremlin – a KGB mobster dictator who thinks he can get away with this. Now in his defense, we’ve let him get away with this previously. Who has let him get away with this? Europe, specifically Germany. The Nord Stream pipelines were a direct tool for Putin to wage war on Ukraine. Back then, it was already a preparation for excluding Ukraine from the gas flows in order to make Ukraine economically irrelevant for Europe so they could attack.
Crimea was given to Ukraine because it’s not sustainable as part of Russia – you need water access and all of this. It’s a complicated situation. Khrushchev didn’t give Ukraine Crimea because of the goodness of his heart, but because geographically it belongs there. All the Ukrainian areas under Russian control had voted to join Ukraine when Ukraine became independent. There’s no doubt about this – none of these people wanted to be in Russia, majority-wise.
Russia has neither a democratic, nor cultural, nor political, nor legal right to any of those territories. If you ask me what the negotiations should be about, it’s about the amount of reparations that Russia has to pay, about how Russia has to support Ukraine in restoring Ukrainian territories – which of course have to all go back to Ukraine. That means Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea, and Kherson. There’s no doubt about this. And the other question is where Putin moves to – The Hague or the basement of wherever he sent Navalny, Politkovskaya, Nemtsov, and so many others.
Right now, are we in the process of giving Russia something they don’t deserve? And when I mean Russia, I don’t mean ordinary Russians – I mean the criminal regime that is occupying Ukraine, killing Ukrainians, and also, by the way, ethnically cleansing their own poorer areas in Russia. That’s the other genocide going on, not just against Ukraine. Putin wants to eliminate Ukraine as an independent cultural and political entity. His cronies always speak about how Ukrainians are “Russians with a mental illness” – because their “mental illness” (according to Putinism) is that they believe they’re Ukrainians, even though they allegedly are Russians. They’re not.
At the same time, Putin has recruited masses of young men and middle-aged and old men, mainly from minority areas, from poor areas, and he’s eliminating those people. It’s an old Russian tradition – I’m sorry, I’m sarcastic, I shouldn’t do that, but you see, I’m angry. It’s an old Russian tradition of getting rid of the people that you don’t want.
Ukraine may actually be in the process right now of really standing up to Russia. Ukraine needs more support, and the Russian economy needs more punishment. This war may not be winnable on a battlefield, but it may be winnable in the economic arena. If Ukraine can just hold out for another half a year or year or year and a half, minimizing their losses, that may actually go Ukraine’s way. This is why Russia is panicking right now.
Don’t mistake what’s happening now for something else – Russia is panicking, Putin is panicking. Don’t believe a single word that Lavrov says. Lavrov has been a liar throughout all these years. He’s the biggest liar in Putin’s service. It’s sad what happened to him, so sad. I don’t know how much of a choice he has, but you make a deal with the devil, you go down with the devil.
What’s Trump’s role in this? Trump wants peace, he said that. Well, wanting and getting it are two different things. Don’t take everything Trump is saying literally – he has a very indirect way of getting what he wants. First thing we need to realize is Trump won the election. Don’t argue how narrowly or how “bigly” – whatever: He outsmarted the Democrats, he outsmarted the moderate Republicans. That’s why they’re all sitting there and saying “what can we do?”
Personally, I have to trust the ego of every single Republican member of Congress in wanting to be reelected, in wanting to be part of a system that works over all this dysfunction. But there are worse things than America – come here, drive around. Yes, there are problems, but there are problems everywhere. Once you realize how rich the US is, how well-off most people are compared to other countries, the situation is not as dire as people want. A lot of this is theater, some of it is serious.
I’m not happy about the MAGA approach to the federal government. I understand we need to cut some money. Trump isn’t the best president, his style is off-putting to too many. He said he wanted tougher border control with Canada and Mexico. He said “I want tariffs” – he didn’t want tariffs, tariffs are idiotic, he knows that, but they’re a good tool to threaten. Tariff deadline came, Canada and Mexico promised something they probably already had thought of doing, Trump happy, tariffs postponed.
Now when Hegseth said it is “unrealistic” for Ukraine to get back all its territory – well, in parentheses, militarily of course it’s not likely, but he didn’t say they will not get it back. He said “unrealistic” – look at the nuance. Now it’s difficult for some to imagine Hegseth and NATO in the same sentence, but don’t fall for it. Again, don’t think people are stupid – assume them to be worthy opponents.
Then Hegseth said it’s unlikely that Ukraine will be in NATO. Well, Biden was again against it, Germany has been against it, and France – Germany and France have been at the forefront of promising Ukraine something, then withdrawing and being part of the problem. I’m from Germany, I can say that. Sorry, is it realistic that Ukraine is in NATO soon? Well, Hungary will veto it as long as Putin is alive and whatever Putin has on Hungary – mostly gas and oil. So no, NATO has to vote on it.
In 2008, when this first arose, Ukraine wasn’t the same country. So in 2008, saying no to NATO for Ukraine may have made some sense, sadly. To be in NATO, you have to be solidly democratic, solidly integratable into the Western system. It’s an alliance of values. And yes, Russia was offered NATO membership – they probably declined because the Russian leadership knew they didn’t want these values because they threatened their criminal enterprise.
So what could you say – giving up NATO membership, giving up land, what does this do? Well, it does the following – again, interpreting it generously: Putin says NATO is the problem, Trump says NATO is the problem, “I took it off the table.” Well, says Putin, we don’t want to give up territory – well, “territory is negotiable.” What this does is it makes Russia have no excuse. Russia claims it’s about NATO, Russia claims it’s about the land – it’s not. It’s about them wanting to be an empire.
Today, Marco Rubio met with some others and had a press conference, and Rubio was clear: Ukraine will be part of Europe, will be part of it – there’s not going to be peace until everybody is happy. So let’s see – is it good or bad if the war ends? It’s good, but it has to end the right way. It can’t end in a way that Ukraine is completely toothless – Ukraine would be the victim of Russian further aggression in the future, and Russia gets away with it. That’s not an end of the war.
And if you listen to Rubio, what you could have heard, if you wanted to, was “calm down everyone, we are diplomats, we talk in diplomatic language – trust us, measure us by our actions.” Am I a fan of the Trump government? No. Politically, I’m independent, I don’t want to be beholden to anybody. I will speak out against any government if I have to, but I also have to give benefit of the doubt even to people I don’t like.
So what are we left with here? We are left with me being angry and exasperated, of course, because there’s the perception that Russia’s getting away with it. Perceptions sometimes can become reality, and that is a danger. So I would like everybody to be a little bit more professional. I would like everybody to show a little bit more deliberation and not go into automatic panic mode, because who likes our panicking? Vladimir Putin likes it. Who likes our surrendering attitude? President Xi.
Yes, the Munich conference had some interesting speeches. It’s a strength, not a weakness – us in the West bickering with each other is what we do. It’s a strength. We should calm down about this. We won’t always agree. Yes, Vance spoke about Europe and free speech – the American sense of free speech is different than the European. The Americans really value free speech a little bit more. There have been some tendencies in Europe that are a little bit worrisome indeed, from an American perspective, especially in Germany.
But Germany also has a certain past, as we all know, some forms of hate speech, some political parties in Germany like the AfD – maybe they shouldn’t be normalized. But instead of focusing on Vance’s speech, he also went to the concentration camp with his Indian wife. He has gotten hate, his wife has gotten hate because there are some racists also in the United States. He knows what racism is, he knows what fascism is. He also wrote a book, “Hillbilly Elegy,” on basically how to listen to people, give people a voice that have been discriminated against.
Was this the right speech at the right time? Maybe not. Do I agree with everything in it? No. Some of it was true, some of it was fake news. But our disagreement needs to lead to us welcoming our diversity, welcoming conversation, being in dialogue, and expecting the best of each other even if we fear for the worst. This is how we win, this is how we prevail – by saying our values are stronger than Putin’s criminality, our embracing of difference is stronger than Putin’s authoritarianism.
Our political mess and our political dysfunction create results – it’s not pretty, but it’s better than a dictatorship. I grew up in one, I don’t want that again. So to conclude, sorry for being a little angry – it’s an aggravating time. But I’m telling you, I hope I validated your own anger and frustration, but I am also, ironically, calling for calming us down, looking at it rationally, supporting Ukraine, supporting democracy, supporting freedom of speech, supporting each other, listening to each other. And what’s this called? Keep calm and carry on.
Ceterum censeo Ucrainam esse defendam. Слава Україні!
[This was originally posted to YouTube as a video. This post is a slightly abbreviated transcript, preserving the oral style of the video.]
Erratic Attempts 